Casino Bonus Calculator – Estimate Real Bonus Value

How to calculate the real value of a casino bonus

Casino bonuses rarely deliver their face value due to wagering requirements. The real expected value of a bonus depends on three factors: the wagering requirement, the game RTP you plan to use, and the house edge.

The bonus value formula

Expected Value = Bonus Amount × (1 − (Wagering × House Edge))

Example: $100 bonus, 35x wagering, playing slots at 96% RTP (4% house edge):

• Total wagering required: $100 × 35 = $3,500
• Expected loss during wagering: $3,500 × 4% = $140
• Expected value: $100 − $140 = −$40 (negative — the bonus costs you money on average)

When is a bonus actually profitable?

A bonus has positive expected value when: Bonus Amount > (Wagering × House Edge). For a $100 bonus at 35x wagering on slots (4% house edge), you need the house edge to be under 2.9% — which means games with 97%+ RTP. Blackjack at 0.5% house edge with 100% game contribution would make this profitable, but most casinos exclude table games from bonus wagering.

Quick reference table

At 96% RTP (slots), here's what different wagering multipliers cost you:

• 10x wagering on $100 bonus: $40 expected loss
• 20x wagering on $100 bonus: $80 expected loss
• 35x wagering on $100 bonus: $140 expected loss
• 50x wagering on $100 bonus: $200 expected loss

When to still claim a bonus

Even with a slightly negative expected value, bonuses give you more playing time and a chance at above-average variance outcomes. If you enjoy casino gaming, claiming a fair bonus (under 35x) is reasonable — just don't view it as a profit source.

Responsible gambling

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